Packers vs 49ers: The San Francisco 49ers will look to beat the Green Bay Packers for the second time this season when the two teams face off in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
As the NFC’s top seed, the 49ers will host the No. 2 Packers at Levi’s Stadium. When the teams played each other at that venue in Week 12, the 49ers had a 23-0 lead at halftime and won by a final score of 37-8. Fans who aren’t clad in scarlet and gold will be hoping the game isn’t as lopsided this time around, but it’s on the Packers to figure out how to put up points against a healthy and rejuvenated 49ers defense.
The winner will advance to Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. They will face either the Kansas City Chiefs or the Tennessee Titans.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Info
When: Sunday, Jan. 19 at 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Live stream: Fox Sports Go
Odds: 49ers (-7.5), over/under 46.5
That 37-8 scoreline from Week 12 is looming large for this game. The 49ers and Packers are both 13-win teams, but the 49ers are bigger favorites than the Chiefs, who are favored by seven points at home against the sixth-seeded Titans (Tennessee beat Kansas City 35-32 in Week 10).
Including the playoffs, San Francisco is 7-2 at home this year, with an average margin of victory of 18.4 points. Only two of those wins were by fewer than eight points. The Packers went 6-2 on the road, losing to the 49ers and to the Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 26-11. If you like the 49ers to win, they look like a solid bet to beat the spread. This stat, dug up by NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling, only helps their case:
As for the over/under, the 46.5 points is a shade higher than the 45 points the teams combined for in Week 12. There’s plenty to suggest taking the under is the bet here.
San Francisco beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 in the divisional round, holding them to just 147 total yards of offense. Defensive end Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt are all healthy again, bolstering a defense led by rookie defensive end Nick Bosa (two sacks against the Vikings) and veteran cornerback Richard Sherman (one interception against the Vikings).
The Packers are coming off a 28-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round. Aaron Rodgers threw for two touchdowns, while running back Aaron Jones added a pair of scores on the ground. However, Green Bay was at home for that contest, where the team averaged 25.9 points per game this season (including the divisional round). On the road this year, the Packers have put up 21.4 points per game.
If you like the over, you will probably be looking for the 49ers’ top-ranked pass defense (169.2 passing yards allowed per game in the regular season) to perhaps let Rodgers put together a couple of touchdown drives before clamping down and turning the game into a rout.
The 49ers averaged 31.8 points per game at home this year (including the postseason), and are no strangers to big scorelines. They put up 51 points against the lowly Carolina Panthers in Week 8, and managed to put up at least 30 points at home on four other occasions. When this team is locked in, they are dangerous.
There’s always a chance the trends here are upended. Rodgers is one of the league’s greatest-ever quarterbacks and already has one Super Bowl ring. If he gets into a groove and Jones can find room to run, this well-balanced and turnover-averse offense could cobble together three or four touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for just 131 yards against the Vikings and only has three touchdown passes in his past four games. The 49ers have plenty of options on the ground, with Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert all taking turns as the lead back this season. Usually one of the three finds a way to break through and establish himself during the course of a game. But they aren’t quite blue-chippers.
If the 49ers rushing attack lacks consistency, the Packers may have a chance to pull off an upset, although it’s highly unlikely it will be in a shootout.
Odds via Caesars and updated as of Sunday, Jan. 19 at 4 a.m. ET.